Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
A mere two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.